According to the latest report from the National Hurricane Center, Agatha has intensified into a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph (NHC). The first storm of the eastern Pacific season is expected to intensify further before making landfall on Monday over the southern Mexican coast.
Agatha is presently 200 miles west-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, with sustained winds of 75 mph. From Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, a hurricane warning is in force. Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado are under tropical storm warnings.
Conditions of A Tropical Storm.
Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach southern Mexico tonight, with hurricane conditions likely to arrive tomorrow in the alert region.
In locations with onshore winds, storm surges may cause coastal flooding close and to the east of where the center approaches the coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. “There’s a chance the surge may be accompanied by massive, damaging waves.”
In addition to storm surges, Agatha will bring torrential rainfall to parts of southern Mexico between Sunday and Tuesday night.
“The greatest rain is likely in the Mexican state of Oaxaca, with totals of 10 to 16 inches expected but isolated totals of up to 20 inches possible,” the hurricane center warned. The leftover low of a dissipating Agatha might reappear in the southern Gulf of Mexico by the.
Middle of This Week After Crossing the Land.
Over the following five days, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 30% risk of development over the area. Dangers of Flash Flooding and Mudslides.
Because of the system’s sluggish pace, hazardous flash floods and mudslides are probable along and east of its course across southern Mexico. But, even if Agatha fades over land, the narrative isn’t necessarily done.
For many days this week, Agatha’s circulation will sweep Pacific moisture through Mexico and Central America, with some spots receiving over 6 inches of rain. Some areas, notably in Mexico’s Oaxaca state, may get up to 20 inches of rain. More than a foot of rain might fall in parts of Chiapas and Guerrero. Could a Gulf Storm Be Sparked by an Eastern Pacific Remnant?
The National Hurricane Center.
By the middle of the week, Agatha’s leftovers or its larger circulation may have reached the Bay of Campeche, where reconstruction may be conceivable. This risk is presently minimal, according to the National Hurricane Center.
However, a Pacific-to-Atlantic basin crossing has occurred in the recent past. Tropical Storm Amanda originated in the Eastern Pacific Ocean around the end of May 2020, then traveled inland and dissipated over Guatemala’s highlands.
However, Amanda’s remaining spin above the earth – its “ghost,” if you will – continued to move north and northwest towards the Inlet of Campeche, a bowl-shaped bay near the Gulf of Mexico’s southwestern edge.
Thunderstorms grew more structured and surface low pressure redeveloped shortly after the “ghost” reappeared over water. The precursor of Tropical Storm Cristobal was conceived.
Amanda, Cristobal, and a CAG poured up to 34 inches of rain in southeast Mexico, 42 inches in El Salvador, and 26 inches in Guatemala over the course of nine days. Flooding and landslides in Central America claimed the lives of 43 people.