Tracking a major winter storm: This is what storms are known for, and it will happen. But it makes it very hard to predict the weather, especially near the coasts.
There could be some rain or snow showers Sunday night (after midnight), mostly to the west and southwest of New York City.
Even Monday morning isn’t too bad. Expect light rain, with snow or a mix of snow and rain in northwest New Jersey, Orange County, and further north. This is because the main low pressure is moving in from the Midwest.
Monday isn’t crazy yet, even as the day goes on. The coastal low starts to form in the south, and winds of the water (the water is in the 40s) push warm air northward.
This turns the little bit of snow that was falling in the north and west into the rain. The only places where winter stays are in Sullivan and Ulster counties, which are in the far north and west and have higher elevations.
Temperatures will reach the 40s. Most of the area should expect the light to moderate rain through the Monday evening commute.
After sunset on Monday night, the coastal storm takes over, moves northeast, and gets stronger quickly. At times, it rains very hard in New York City, especially in the south and east.
Most of the rain falls from late Monday night to early Tuesday morning for most of the area. Expect between 1 and 2 inches of rain and puddles on the roads. Snow gets worse in Sussex County, Orange County, and places further north.
As colder air wraps around our storm and the rain/snow line moves south and east, the Tuesday morning commute will be hardest hit. This is also where there is the most uncertainty about how quickly the cold air will turn rain into snow.
It might be snowing in the city early on Tuesday. It could also still be mostly rain or a mix of snow and rain. We’ll have to keep an eye on trends to figure that out.
There’s a bit more certainty that most of the snow will be falling in the Lower Hudson Valley and interior northeast New Jersey by then (Morris, northern Passaic, Rockland, etc…)
Tuesday, the snow keeps coming from all directions. It snows the hardest in the morning and lessens to snow showers in the afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, gusts of wind could reach 30 to 40 mph, or even higher near the coast, especially in the afternoon and evening.
During high tides, nor’easters usually cause coastal flooding, especially on the north shore Monday night.
As of Sunday morning, there is a winter storm watch for Sussex, northern Passaic, Orange, Putnam, northern Fairfield, and all points north. Here is where there is a good chance of getting 6 inches or more of snow. It will snow heavily and wetly. So there could be some downed trees and power outages.